It’s been now two and a half years since we moved from China back to the U.S., and I went back into a segment of the industry that manufactures product in the U.S. In that time I’ve really only gone back to the Middle Kinkdom (yes, my spelling) 3 times, each for short runs to work on special projects, but in all reality, the bulk of my work doesn’t involve dealing with Chinese manufacturers. I still however, voraciously follow the day to day political, social and economic goings in China. And many times, while I’m clicking through various Twitter feeds and links, I ask myself “why?”
Really, I don’t live there any more, rarely travel there anymore, and other than sourcing the odd bit of machinery or equipment I don’t really do business there any more. At this point in life I’m like the vast majority of American’s that have no direct ties to China, except for my wife’s family and such. So I ask myself “Why?”
First, after living there for 8 years, I think China pretty much “gets in your blood.” I still have friends there, and although the list of friends still in China seems to be dwindling, we still keep in touch by various social media and such, and it’s interesting to see what’s going on at the usual hang outs, who’s doing what with who and such.
Second, to keep track of economics and financial happenings. Forget the whole “China owns the US debt” thing, in reality it’s only 9-point-something percent, of the debt, and even though in the corporate world that’s enough to make you a majority stockholder and get you a seat or two on the board of directors, I think in the world financial community, it doesn’t give you a right to control a country. But, and this is what directly affects the sort of business I’m in, as costs in China rise, what is the tipping point where it’s just as cost effective to manufacture consumer goods such as footwear, apparel, furniture and such in the U.S. as it is in China? And if it does become comparatively cost efficient to produce in the U.S., can we. So far anecdotal evidence leads me to believe probably not.
Third, geopolitical. As China’s appetite for raw materials and food grows, so does chances for rising tensions in the Pacific region. Already we’ve seen tensions between South Korea and other countries regarding Chinese fishermen poaching their fishing grounds as China’s waters become over- fished. China has also laid claim to several disputed territories, and will be interesting to see what happens when they try to press that claim?
Fourth, it’s interesting to see others’ take on the current situation in China. Some, like Gordon Chang seem to think China will collapse in 2012. I’m pretty skeptical of that, I think those that really believe that China’s impending collapse is just a short time away are playing “wishful thinking” and hoping to see the CCCP get their comeuppance. And, there’s no shortage of pundits that head to China for a week and think they’re experts. There’s an old saying, goes something like this. “Go to China for a week, you can write a magazine article. Go to China for a month, you can write a book. Spend 5 years in China, and you realize you don’t, and never will know squat.” It’s been 15 years since I first set foot off the train at the train station in Guangzhou after taking the train from Hong Kong, and I still find things that amaze me.
Finally, China is just a damn interesting place, and there’s a lot to learn from their experience. How to do things, like foster capitalism, which they seem to be doing better than the U.S. at this point in time. And how not to do things, such as human rights, religious freedom, and the culture of corruption in government and business. And just when I thought I had it figured out, well there’s another twist or side to the story. It’s like an onion, you have to peel back the layers to get to the core.
When I lived in China I still kept track of the Cardinals, listened to St. Louis radio at night, and even kept track of the Rams. (Ok, I like torture) Now, I read the news on China, and I every once in a while tune into CRI, (just for grins) and get just a little bit homesick for China when I hear “Hotel California”
